Fantasy Soccer mailbag: FFT solutions your greatest draft questions on risers, fallers, and extra
You ask, we reply. That is how issues are going to work for the subsequent two weeks of Draft Prep season. At present’s e-newsletter is all about answering your questions — preserve sending them to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the topic line “#AskFFT to be included subsequent time! — and we have another fairly nice methods so that you can get the recommendation you want earlier than your drafts, too.
Like our Fantasy Soccer At present Draft-A-Thon, coming to CBS Sports activities HQ and the Fantasy Soccer At present YouTube channel on Aug. 31. We’ll be reside on CBS Sports activities HQ at 6 p.m. after which switching over to YouTube at 8 p.m. till midnight, and the entire level is to reply as lots of your questions as we will. And we’ll have a bunch of our mates from across the Fantasy Soccer world on with us to reply your questions all evening lengthy.
And it is all to lift cash for our mates at St. Jude Kids’s Hospital, and we’re doing that with some very cool experiences you could bid on in our Ebay retailer with St. Jude. You will have an opportunity to speak with the FFT workforce, our CBS Sports activities mates, and different Fantasy consultants one-on-one by means of these auctions, with extra experiences and prizes being added — together with a poker match we’ll be taking part in with FFT listeners subsequent Monday evening, which I am going to have extra particulars on within the coming days.
As we head into this weekend, we’ll have up to date sleepers, breakouts, and busts from Jamey Eisenberg, up to date tiers from Dave Richard, and deep sleepers and the very best values on each main draft website from Heath Cummings, plus every thing else you have to find out about earlier than you draft proper right here within the FFT e-newsletter.
However for now, let’s get to a few of your questions.
Wish to get your questions answered? You’ve got acquired about two weeks left till the season kicks off to ship them in to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the topic line “#AskFFT.” I will be attending to as many questions as I can over the subsequent two weeks (plus in-season, clearly), and if I do not reply them within the e-newsletter, I am going to attempt to reply to everybody personally so you have acquired the solutions you want.
We’ll begin this week’s mailbag with one of many extra fascinating questions I’ve gotten thus far this preseason:
- Matt – I used to be curious for those who or anybody you recognize has ever achieved a historic evaluation on whether or not we ought to be following the pack with ADP risers and fallers, or if it is extra noise and probably one thing to fade. It is in all probability not the simplest evaluation, however I am simply curious what it might appear like. Anecdotally, I really feel there are many examples the place weighing preseason information closely has each helped me and damage me previously.
I am not conscious of any research on this subject, however it’s a fantastic query. Typically talking, I believe extra data is all the time higher, and since we’ve extra data the nearer we get to the beginning of the season, I’d guess ADP information continues to get extra predictive the nearer you get to Week 1. However that is only a guess, albeit a logical one.
I believe the important thing, as with all issues, is to key in on the tendencies which are grounded in one thing seemingly actual. Dameon Pierce’s worth spike currently is an instance of that; Antonio Gibson’s decline is one other. Each of these are tied to what appear to be actual, tangible modifications in how these gamers are considered by their groups, with Pierce going from deep on the depth chart to probably the starter whereas Gibson has gone from the presumed lead again to being caught in a three-way committee – at greatest.
An instance of a development I do not essentially assume makes a lot sense? Courtland Sutton is beginning to separate himself from Jerry Jeudy in ADP, having moved as much as 37.39 over the previous week in NFC drafts, greater than a full spherical forward of Jeudy. Neither has performed a lot as a snap within the preseason, so we’re largely going off coaching camp stories – notably, one ESPN reporter saying that “when he actually wants a completion or has been moved off his spot by the cross rush, he will search for Sutton.”
I am not saying there’s nothing there, however I simply have a tough time saying Sutton is clearly a greater choose than Jeudy due to that. I’ve had Jeudy ranked a number of spots greater than Sutton all through the draft course of, however usually talking, I believe each ought to be considered within the WR3 vary with upside. I desire a piece of this Russell Wilson-led offense, however seeing as Sutton goes to value a borderline third-round choose whereas Jeudy has been there within the fifth spherical, it is a simple name for me.
- Konrad — How will we really feel about drafting gamers we like on unhealthy offenses. I’ve the primary choose and I need to take Christian McCaffrey in my 10-team SuperFlex league. I’ve seen D.J. Moore fall to the 4-5 flip at instances, too — ought to I take him with out thought or perhaps seize my subsequent highest-ranked receiver as an alternative.
It will be a mistake to say that the standard of a participant’s offense does not matter for Fantasy, however what you need to be sure to aren’t doing is double counting. We have seen McCaffrey be a traditionally nice Fantasy possibility in a nasty offense, in order that’s probably not a priority for me, and I believe Moore’s poor offensive context is already accounted for in his value. Even along with his value rising in current weeks, Moore is simply WR14 in NFC ADP at 34.89, and he is 51.99 in CBS Fantasy leagues. That is a reasonably low cost value for a man with two top-20 finishes in his previous three years who acquired a QB improve.
Which is to say, usually talking, these sorts of issues are already baked into the value. They actually are for Moore, and they’re for guys like DK Metcalf (65.92) and Darnell Mooney (91.19) who would in all probability be loads greater in the event that they had been in higher conditions. Downgrading gamers in unhealthy offenses is a great technique, however for essentially the most half, it is already occurring.
What you need to be on guard for is somebody like Dameon Pierce, who’s going to proceed to see his value rise as a preseason sleeper making good on the prospect to be his workforce’s lead again. Sadly, that workforce remains to be the Texans, so that you need to mood expectations. He may very well be a worth within the 90 vary of drafts; much less so within the sixth spherical.
- Brennan – 16-team, full PPR league. I performed final yr with these similar guys and plenty of groups are going to take two QBs. How do you strategy a draft like this?
Few of you play in 16-team leagues, however that is nonetheless a worthwhile query as a result of it will get at an essential level in the case of evaluation: your league. Once I say I need to be one of many first folks in my league to draft a quarterback, I say that figuring out that many of the leagues I am drafting in will embrace my colleagues and different Fantasy analysts, which implies quarterbacks might be systematically devalued. If I performed in a league the place I do know quarterbacks might be taken within the first spherical, I am extra prone to wait and take one or two of the lower-end QBs.
Know your league’s tendencies and use them to tell your draft. Within the case of a 16-team league the place practically everybody goes to draft two quarterbacks, my desire can be to verify I get one of many certain issues – I take into account that to be anybody within the first three tiers of Dave Richard’s QB tiers, although I might additionally add Derek Carr to that listing, I believe. I do not assume I’d spend one other top-10 spherical choose on one other QB, but when somebody like Baker Mayfield was there late, I would not thoughts having that insurance coverage. In any other case, I am in all probability solely drafting somebody like Marcus Mariota as insurance coverage.
- Keith – I draft within the twelfth place in a PPR league. When ought to I begin drafting for place wants as an alternative of worth?
By no means. Now, look, I am the early-round QB and TE man, so I am not saying positions should not play an element in your draft technique. However that is completely different than drafting for a positional want, in my eyes. You ought to be making an allowance for the place edges would possibly lie at one place or one other, and I believe the QBs and TEs within the first few rounds present that potential edge.
However that is completely different than saying, “Okay, I’ve the remainder of my beginning spots locked up, now it is time to draft a working again.” If the clear greatest participant on the board is a large receiver and you have got your large receiver spots crammed already, you need to nonetheless take that large receiver.
Since you aren’t drafting for Week 1, and that is a mistake too many drafters make. Having a possible gap in your roster in Week 1 does not matter an excessive amount of, as a result of your lineup goes to look a lot completely different by Week 5, not to mention Week 15. The draft is your greatest probability so as to add affect gamers to your roster, so that is what you need to be prioritizing.
- Rick – Is Taysom Hill price drafting as a late-round flier? In Yahoo, he has each a QB and TE designation.
Hill is spending plenty of time actually studying the tight finish place in camp, a change from how he has been used previously. Hill has stated he is nonetheless anticipating for use as a quarterback sometimes, however the focus has been on making him extra of a real tight finish, which suggests to me that the probabilities of him getting a shot to begin at QB are fairly slim – it might take accidents to at the least Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, and sure Ian E-book, too.
And for those who’re speaking about Hill being a viable Fantasy possibility even at tight finish, you in all probability want him beginning at QB for that to occur. There are going to be weeks the place Hill is a top-12 TE as a result of he vultures a landing within the crimson zone, however it appears unlikely he will be a large enough a part of the offense constantly sufficient for it to be a guess price making. In deeper leagues or particularly Finest Ball, Hill is an honest late-round dart throw with some actual upside on the excessive finish of his outcomes. However in most 12-team leagues, he’ll be a wasted roster spot.
Accidents, Information, & Notes
Gus Edwards will miss the primary 4 weeks of the season — at the least!
Edwards was positioned on the PUP as he continues to recuperate from his torn ACL, which implies he is out for the primary month of the season. With J.Okay. Dobbins nonetheless working his method again to full velocity – he hasn’t achieved full-team drills but as he works his method again from his personal torn ACL – that would depart Mike Davis in line for a reasonably vital early-season position. Whether or not meaning he’ll be the lead again or a complement to Dobbins stays to be seen, however it’s sufficient to place Davis on late-round radars, particularly for those who’re drafting a Zero-RB construct and want a short-term bridge possibility till you will discover somebody higher. Davis may very well be a low-end starter with landing potential early on.
Elijah Mitchell is on tempo for Week 1
Mitchell is getting back from a hamstring harm, however coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters Tuesday he’s on schedule to play within the opener towards the Bears. Mitchell has missed the whole preseason with the harm, and likewise missed time throughout offseason coaching attributable to a knee harm, so it is honest to wonder if he’ll be capable to maintain as much as being a lead again for a full season – he could not do it as a rookie. That makes the 49ers backup RB spot an intriguing one, particularly due to how good this offense tends to be at working the ball regardless of who’s again there. Jeff Wilson has been away from the workforce attributable to a private matter however has essentially the most expertise within the system, whereas second-year again Trey Sermon looks as if he is subsequent in line forward of Tyrion Davis-Value. Sermon stays my favourite late-round possibility right here.
Jameson Williams was added to the reserve/NFI listing
Williams was moved to the reserve listing because the workforce begins to chop down their roster, and it means he’ll be out for at the least the primary 4 weeks of the season coming off a torn ACL suffered throughout the NCAA nationwide championship recreation in January. That timeline is sensible, and Williams nonetheless clearly has a methods to go earlier than he’s cleared, as he hasn’t been taking part in coaching camp practices but. The No. 12 total choose on this yr’s draft, Williams may very well be a contributor for Fantasy within the second half of the season, however except you have acquired an IR spot to play with, he’ll be robust to justify utilizing a draft choose on.
Sterling Shepard may very well be activated quickly
The Giants opted to not place Shepard on the PUP listing for the beginning of the season as he recovers from a ruptured Achilles, which is an indication the workforce views him as a possible early-season contributor. Based on the New York Publish, the Giants hope Shepard may be again within the first month of the season, as he has been capable of do some particular person exercises on the sidelines throughout camp. What Shepard’s position will appear like stays to be seen – he performed primarily out of the slot and had seven or extra catches in his first three wholesome video games earlier than accidents derailed his season. Shepard has some enchantment in PPR codecs if he can get again to that type, however I might reasonably guess on rookie Wan’Dale Robinson as a late-round goal for the Giants and let Shepard present he is wholesome earlier than I add him to my roster.